Friday, 23 August 2013

Saul Eslake's Calculations

With info garnered from Lenore Taylor's article, here is how Saul Eslake added up Coalition figures to conclude they need almost $30billion merely to reach where Labor is.

Coalition needs to find $29.8bn in savings just to get the budget bottom line back to where it is under Labor.

How Eslake has reached this figure:

Lost revenue

no carbon price $12.9bn
no minerals resource rent tax $5.9bn
proposed company tax cut $7.7bn 
no changes to FBT on company cars $1.7bn
= $28.4bn in revenue forgone


direct action climate policy $3.2bn
road projects around the country $10.5bn
smaller promises like the green army and the Tasmanian growth plan.
= $14.8bn extra spending

Subtract spending cuts announced by the Coalition, such as:  

reducing size of public service by 12,000 $2bn 
abolishing schoolkids' bonus $4.6bn
abolishing supplementary allowance for people on unemployment benefits $1.1bn
abolishing tax rebate for low income superannuation contributions $2.9bn 
delaying proposed increase in superannuation $500m
rescinding increase in Australia's humanitarian intake so only 13,750 people a year $455m
cuts to car industry assistance $500m
interest savings on money not needed to be borrowed for Labor's NBN $1.2bn
= $13.4bn in savings

Total: $29.8 billion more savings required

Lenore's article points out the quibbles Senator Mathias Cormann had with these calculations.,
He said there would be $900m more savings from cutting the refugee intake
$3bn more from cutting the public service, and
$1.5bn more from pushing back the increase in superannuation
= $5.4bn extra savings

This would mean only $24.4 billion extra required.

It's possible we're still guessing about all this because Abbott has got some nasty cuts up his sleeve that he wants to hide until the last moment. 
Oh. Don't we feel so much better.